The Flynn Defenestration Will
Hamper Trump's Foreign Policy
By
Moon Of Alabama
February 14, 2017 "Information
Clearing House"
- "Moon
Of Alabama"
- Trump's National Security Advisor Flynn
resigned after only three weeks in office. While
I am certainly no fan of Flynn or of Trump I
find this defenestration a dangerous event. It
will hamper any big change in U.S. foreign
policy
that Trump may envision.
The
resignation followed a
highly orchestrated campaign against Flynn
by intelligence officials, the media and some
people within the White House.
After
the election and Trump's unexpected win the
Obama administration slapped sanctions on Russia
and sent Russian embassy officials back to
Moscow. This move was intended to blockade a
Trump policy of better relations with Russia.
Flynn talked with the Russian ambassador and, as
a direct result, the Russian's did not respond
tit for tat for the sanctions and expulsions.
This was an absolutely positive move and in full
accordance with announced Trump policies. Henry
Kissinger made a similar move and visited the
Russian embassy weeks before he became Nixon's
NSC. During the 2012 election Obama made
a similar "deal" with the Russians in a
comparable situation:
President Barack Obama was caught on camera
on Monday assuring outgoing Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev that he will have
"more flexibility" to deal with contentious
issues like missile defense after the U.S.
presidential election.
Despite
tens or hundreds of claimed White House leaks in
the media I am still not sure what really
happened next. Trump's enemies and some
intelligence officials accused Flynn of lying
about the phone calls with the Russian
ambassador. It is unclear what the alleged lies
really are and especially why they should
matter. Obfuscation is part of any White House
business. If Flynn had secretly talked with the
Israeli ambassador (which he probably did) no
one would have attacked him.
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So why
was Flynn really under pressure and why didn't
Trump back him? It would have been easy for
Trump to say: "I ordered Flynn to do that. Obama
did similar. In both cases it was a GREAT
success. USA! USA! USA!" Nobody would have been
able to further attack Flynn over the issue
after such a protective move.
But
Trump, completely against his style, held his
mouth and did nothing. What else happened in the
White House that let him refrain from backing
Flynn?
Sure,
the real beef other people have with Flynn is
not about Russia but
other issues, like his plans to reform the
intelligence services. But by throwing Flynn out
like this Trump opened himself to further
attacks.
As it
looks now a rather small gang of current and
former intelligence officials - with the help of
the anti-Trump media - leaked Flynn out of his
office. They will not stop there.
Now
blood is in the street and the hyenas will lust
for more. The Trump magic is broken. He has
shown vulnerability. Now they will go after
their next target within the Trump
administration and then the next and the next
until they have Trump isolated and by the balls.
He just invited them to proceed. All major
foreign policy moves he planned will be
hampered. The detente with Russia has probably
ended before it even started.
There
is another, overlooked country where Flynn's
position as NSC influenced policy decisions.
Flynn had at times
lobbied for Turkey and good relations with
the Erdogan government. Even on the very day of
the presidential election an op-ed of his
damning Erdogan's enemy Gülen and lauding Turkey
was
published.
After
Trump was inaugurated and again talked of
no-fly-zones the Turkish president Erdogan made
another of his famous 180 degree turns.
Erdogan
had wanted a no-fly-zones (aka a Turkish
protectorate) in Syria from the very beginning
of the war. The Obama administration would not
give him one and in the later years shunned him.
Erdogan turned to Russia but was told that he
would have to limit his ambitions in Syria: no
no-fly-zone, no Turkish march to Manbij or Raqqa.
Erdogan agreed. But after Trump talked of new
sanctions and Flynn was installed as NSC
Erdogan again changed his position. He is now
again calling for a no-fly-zone and is again
promising to conquer Manbij (held by Kurds) and
Raqqa (held by the Islamic State). (Any such
attempt would be hopeless. The Turkish army and
its Islamist proxy forces have tried to conquer
the much smaller Al-Bab, held by the Islamic
State, for over four month now and
still fail at it.)
The
Russian's will have taken note of such
unreliable behavior. One wonders how Erdogan now
feels as his lobbyist in a top position of the
Trump administration is gone. If the Trump
administration now acts against his plans will
he creep back to Putin and ask for forgiveness?
Would that be accepted?
Flynn
is no big loss for the world, the U.S. or the
Trump administration. But Trump has now lost the
initiative. He long managed to set the media
agenda for the day by this or that "outrageous"
tweet or remark. Now this advantage has been
taken away from him over some nonsense
allegations and his lack of backing for one of
his top people.
He will
soon rue the day he let this happen.
