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What Should
Mexico Do Against The 'Bully'?
Trump needs to divert attention ... To cover the issue
of Russian espionage, the bully will try to fuck our
country
By Leo Zuckermann
Note from
Tom - This article was published at the
Exelsior on January 12, 2017. Spanish
translation by Google.
January 13, 2017 "Information
Clearing House"
- The bully has threatened many inside and outside
their country. It has clear incentives to start acting
against Mexico by the huge asymmetry between the two
neighboring nations. The United States is the most
powerful economy on the planet. Mexico is an emerging
country. EU has solid institutions and large capacity of
government operation. Mexico is a fledgling democracy
with training institutions and a government with
operational problems. EU is the largest military power
in the world. The Armed Forces of Mexico do not paint.
In the United States he will be taking
possession of a president who has the support of half of
the population and a majority in both houses of
Congress. In Mexico we have a president who goes
out, very weak, extremely unpopular and increasingly
embattled within and outside his party. Mexico is, in
short, a tempting prey for the bully.
Now that
Trump is coming to power
amid a scandal with the intelligence community in your
country, you need to divert attention and have a quick
win: a quick victory that lets tell ya got, see how
wonderful I am. Yesterday we saw in his press
conference. A Trump was asked about the possible
involvement of the Russians to support his campaign and
he replied saying it will create many jobs in the US
because it will put a border tax. It is very clear: to
cover the issue of Russian espionage, the bully will try
to fuck to Mexico. Throughout his business career, and
as a candidate, Trump has been characterized as the
typical bully "person using force or influence to harm
or intimidate those who are weaker" (Oxford Dictionary).
It is the typical burly of the college who fight with
weaklings to prove he is an alpha male who always gets
his way.
What should
Mexico against a character like that?
Recently,
political scientist Alberto Diaz recalled Cayeros game
theory Nobel Economics Prize, Thomas Schelling: "Perhaps
the most important insight that emerges from the work of
Schelling is what is known as the problem of credible
commitment. If a strategic actor wants to
obtain a favorable outcome in a negotiation process, one
of the fundamental problems is credibly establish a
course of action that would be taken if the negotiation
does not progress. Only if the strategic player
can commit to a threat (not just empty words) of a
course of action that clearly harm his opponent, you can
dramatically improve profits reaching an agreement. "
What might be
the credible threats against the Mexican government
Trump bully?
Yes, Mexico is
a much weaker EU country. But also it has some chips to
play. In this sense, it identifies what the country has
and that would hurt US if it removed. Actions that could
complicate governance to the new president to have
incentives to go fuck away.
I think, for
example, in the damn money it is an issue when it stops
flowing, everyone always hurts more in the Mecca of
world capitalism. For each threat the bully to put a
tariff on Mexican exports, we could threaten other
taxes. ¿35% border tax on cars that General Motors
produces in Mexico? Very good. In return: 35% tariff on
beans we import US. Or how about a special consumption
tax in supermarkets operated by US companies like
Walmart? With credible threats, Mexico must send the
message to the bully that he is not just waiting for the
beating, but has allies who will defend because their
interests could be affected.
So you have to
think of all the chips that Mexico can play in their
relationship with the US: the economy of the border, US
firms operating here, Mexicans living in the US,
Americans living in Mexico, the country's participation
in the war against drug trafficking, cooperation in the
prosecution of international terrorists, intelligence
sharing, the relationship with China, and so on.
Schelling
showed that to beat a bully, no credible threats to
launch and be willing to carry them out, even if it
means losing a lot, maybe everything. The challenge for
Mexico, as Cayeros Diaz says, is "to force our opponent
to grant favorable terms by threatening to everything."
It is complicated, but failure to do so will bully us a
monumental beating from January 20. Now that urges a
quick victory to divert attention from their rinses with
the Russians.
Twitter: @leozuckermann
Mexico will 'immediately' respond
to any US border tax imposed by Donald Trump, minister
says:
"It is clear we need to be prepared to immediately
neutralise the impact of such a measure," Economy
Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said in an interview on
Mexican television.
Mexico - Growth forecast down,
peso’s value down: Trump's tweets blamed for peso's
decline.
The peso has fallen more than 5% against the dollar
since the year began, setting new lows before and during
the U.S. president-elect’s press conference yesterday,
dropping below 22 pesos to the dollar.
Mexico - More poverty due to gas
prices: experts:
The January 1 increase in gasoline prices could finish
up creating a “nation-wide surge of impoverishment.”
That was a warning issued by a group of specialists
interviewed by the newspaper El Universal,
The views
expressed in this article are the author's own and do
not necessarily reflect Information Clearing House
editorial policy. |
