Who Profits
from Turkey’s ‘Sarajevo Moment’?
By Pepe Escobar
December 21,
2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- Let’s cut to the chase: Ankara 2016 is not Sarajevo
1914. This is not a prelude to WWIII. Whoever plotted
the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey
Andrey Karlov – a cool, calm, collected old-school
diplomat – risks a mighty blowback.
The assassin,
Mevlut Mert Altintas, was a 22-year-old police academy
graduate. He was suspended from the Turkish National
Police (TNP) over suspected links to the Fethullahist
Terrorist Organization (FETO) after the failed July 15
putsch against Erdogan but
returned to duty in November.
It’s no secret
Gulenists heavily infiltrate the TNP; so a particular
outcome of the attack will be an, even more, relentless
Erdogan/AKP crackdown on the Gulen network. The Turkish
investigation will have to focus not only on the (major)
security service fail at Ankara’s modern art center –
but way beyond. It’s not very reassuring that Turkish
Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu put out a terse
statement a very long three hours after the facts.
The killer in a
black suit and tie shouted slogans about revenge “for
Aleppo” – the requisite “Allahu Akbar”
included – in both Turkish and broken Arabic, something
that might establish a connection to an Islamist group’s
rhetoric, although that’s not conclusive evidence.
Timing is
crucial. The hit happened only one day before the
Foreign Ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran were
scheduled to meet in Moscow for a key Syria strategic
discussion. They were already closely in touch for the
past few weeks on how to strike a comprehensive deal on
Aleppo – and beyond.
And this right
after the crucial, previously established Putin-Erdogan
agreement, which implied no less than thousands of “moderate
rebels” responding to Turkey’s commands being able
to use a “corridor” out of Aleppo. Ankara was
fully on board with the plan. That in itself eliminates
the possibility of an Ankara-provoked false flag.
President Putin
for his part made it very clear he wants to be informed
on who “directed” the killer. That’s something
that could be interpreted as subtle code for Russian
intel already very much in the know.
The Big
Picture
On the
bilateral front, Moscow and Ankara are now working close
together on counter-terrorism. Turkey’s defense minister
was invited to Russia for anti-air defense system
negotiations. Bilateral trade is booming again,
including the creation of a joint investment fund. On
the all-important energy front, Turkish Stream, despite
the Obama administration’s obsession about its
derailment, became the subject of state law in Ankara
earlier this month.
Atlanticists
are appalled that Moscow, Ankara and Tehran are now
fully engaged in designing a post-Battle of Aleppo
Syrian future, to the graphic exclusion of the NATO-GCC
combo.
It’s under this
context that the recent
alleged capture of a bunch of NATO-GCC operatives –
deployed under the US-led-from-behind “coalition”
– by Syrian Special Forces in Aleppo must be
interpreted.
Syrian member
of Parliament Fares Shehabi, the head of the Chamber of
Commerce in Aleppo, published the names of the
apprehended coalition officers; most are Saudi; there’s
one Qatari; the presence of one Moroccan and one
Jordanian is explained by the fact Morocco and Jordan
are “unofficial” GCC members.
And then
there’s one Turk, one American (David Scott Winer) and
one Israeli. So NATO shows up only via two operatives,
but the NATO-GCC link is more than established. If this
information proceeds – and that’s still a big “if” –
these may well be coalition military personnel and field
commanders, formerly advising “moderate rebels”
and now a formidable bargaining chip in the hands of
Damascus.
Both NATO and
GCC remain absolutely mum; not even non-denial denials
have materialized. That might imply a made in the shade
deal for the release of the high-value prisoners,
further strengthening Damascus’ grip.
It was
President Putin who all but established a de facto
Russia-Iran-Turkey axis dealing with facts on the Syrian
ground – in parallel to the rhetoric-heavy,
zero-solution UN charade going on in Geneva. Moscow
diplomatically emphasizes that the work of the axis
complement Geneva. In fact, it’s the only reality-based
work. And it’s supposed to sign and seal definitive
parameters on the ground before Donald Trump enters the
White House.
In a nutshell;
the five-year (and running) NATO-GCC combo’s
multi-billion dollar regime change project in Syria all
but miserably failed. Wily Erdogan seems to have learned
his realpolitik lesson. On the Atlanticist front
nevertheless, that opens myriad avenues to channel
geopolitical resentment.
The Big Picture
couldn’t be more absolutely unbearable for neocon/neoliberalcon
Atlanticists. Ankara slowly but surely is veering the
Eurasianist way; bye bye to the EU, and eventually NATO;
welcome to the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. the China-driven
One Belt, One Road (OBOR); the Russia-driven Eurasia
Economic Union (EEU); the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO); the Russia-China strategic
partnership; and Turkey as a key hub in Eurasia
integration.
For all that to
happen, Erdogan has concluded Ankara must be on board
the Russia-China-Iran long-term strategy to pacify and
rebuild Syria and make it a key hub as well of the New
Silk Roads. Between that and an “alliance” of fleeting
interests with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the US, it’s
certainly a no-brainer.
But make no
mistake. There will be blood.
The views
expressed in this article are the author's own and do
not necessarily reflect Information Clearing House
editorial policy. |